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Sanders vs. Trump – A bookies dream?

January 12, 2016

It’s difficult to get pundits to agree on much, but 99% of them seem to agree that the American public is pretty disgusted with the status quo. That being so, it’s not hard to see why both Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders are resonating with their respective base constituencies.

The two issues polling as the top-of-mind subjects of voter concern are national security and immigration.

As the so-called Obama 2.0 establishment candidate Hillary Clinton is proving to be as tone deaf as her former boss on these issues.

Germany and other European nations are beginning to reap the ugly harvest from their crop of unscreened and ungovernable immigrants. Story after story breaks with reports of both home-grown and immigrant ISIS sympathizers either attacking or planning attacks in the States.

Following the liberal playbook to a T, Ms. Clinton is quoted as demanding that the U.S. government  quit raiding immigrant communities and picking up illegal immigrants because it makes them feel  uncomfortable and insecure. That may work with her party’s need for Latino votes, but it doesn’t do much for the rest of the country.

Sanders appeals to the liberal left that still wants to value wholesale immigration and protect existing illegal immigrants, but also sees value in securing the border. On this issue at least, he maintains his liberal roots without making his base feel that he doesn’t care about their safety.

Sanders is at least honest about his vision for America. He’s an unabashed socialist, doesn’t care who knows it, and couldn’t be less concerned about who likes his position and who doesn’t.

Hillary’s vision seems to be to assign “favorite kid” status according to which group she is currently milking for votes.

On the right-hand side of the fence, Donald Trump may express himself crudely by the standards set by the politically correct crowd, but there is no doubt about what he believes in, what he thinks of the condition of the United States, and his resolve to change that condition has never wavered.

Although these two standard bearers for the extreme wings of their party stand for diametrically opposed visions, they nevertheless provide clear signposts for the future of America.

Does the country move hard left or hard right in 2016?

In the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average of polls through 1/08/16, both Sanders and Trump are maintaining support among approximately 35% of the announced likely voter population in the primary season.  That makes the remaining 30% far more important than usual.

Given that Ms. Clinton is at least under some threat (albeit unlikely) of being charged pre-election with some form of potentially illegal activity it seems that Sanders actually poses more of a threat than his polling numbers would show.

Indeed, one RCP statistic not currently on most people’s radar is the head-to-head match between Sanders and Trump.  RCP has Sanders ahead by 2.0 points in the general election, essentially a tie, and ahead of Marco Rubio by 1 point, again a statistical tie this far out. For some reason the RCP doesn’t rank Sanders against Cruz, possibly because Cruz is widely thought to be essentially Trump with better debating skills.

Given the mood of the far wings of the party, if Clinton tanks as she did in 2008 and Trump continues to maintain or even grow his momentum, what would you give to control the sports book on that contest?

From → op-ed

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