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About that political tsunami theory…

March 17, 2016

When CNBC quoted Curly Haugland, a GOP convention  rules member, as blaming the media for “…creating the perception” that voters choose candidates he was being both disingenuous and honest.

In actual fact he is right.  All these primaries and caucuses don’t really choose any candidate, so his comments were honest.

The disingenuous part is that he apparently thinks voters are OK with that.

What is this delegate thing all about, anyway, and why should we care?

Under the current system, the popular vote gets compressed into a few people who then go to a central location and translate the voter’s opinions into a supposedly more efficient method of selecting a candidate.

If the delegates are merely functioning as human checkmarks for the voters that would be just fine.

The truth is that the system can allow for an awful lot of these delegates to vote their personal opinions and even to ignore the voters back home completely.

Even the so-called “super delegates” don’t absolutely have to maintain loyalty to their candidate, given the right moment in time.

The right combination of circumstances occurs when there is more than one ballot to appoint a candidate to represent the party in the general election.

Depending on their state’s rule, delegates are free as the wind after from one to three rounds of balloting. The ones belonging to the also-rans could bolt on the first ballot, rules permitting.

There’s a good chance that’s going to happen this time.

Since the RNC is not exactly backing Donald Trump, they are now praying with fervor that he can’t close the deal and thus won’t come into the convention with the requisite 1237 votes.

Given that Trump has a habit of sticking his foot in his mouth up to his knee, that’s still a possibility.

Comments such as that he wouldn’t need anyone’s advice to handle foreign policy because he’s such a smart guy are beginning to scare people, even those who have already voted for him. That’s exactly the sort of messianic personality we have in the White House now.

It isn’t just Trump supporters who stand to have their vote negated.

Ted Cruz is almost as unpopular as Trump in the establishment circles that have dominated GOP politics for so long. His supporters aren’t going to be any happier than Trump’s group if he’s cut out by the party at the very end.

The delegate system is meant to provide a sort of counterbalance to the often purely emotional effect of the popular vote.

Voters don’t see it that way, at least in this contest.

Despite the RNC and the media’s attempts to differentiate between a “brokered” and a “contested” convention, the public sees all of it as a small group of corrupt kingmakers keeping their foot on the necks of the people.

There’s hardly any other way for them to see it, since the RNC establishment signaled early on that neither candidate was acceptable to them.

Between Trump, Cruz and the now KIA Marco Rubio, about 80% of voters to date have voted solidly for an end to the status quo. That’s the only explanation for the early and solid defeat of the establishment-anointed candidate, Jeb Bush.

Even if it is possible for John Kasich to cobble together enough money and voter face time to get that remaining 20% that still makes him the voter’s number three.

Even if you hate Donald Trump you have to give him points for perspicacity on this issue…if the party takes over this election it ain’t gonna be pretty.

Got your water wings yet?

From → op-ed

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