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Are there 30 million shy Trump voters?

October 12, 2016

It’s not likely.

As tough as it is for Trump’s dedicated base supporters to hear, there probably aren’t enough closet Trump Republican supporters to swing the election his way.

Notice the qualifier.

There is still an odd disparity between the online polls and the so-called “legitimate” ones.

That means that (A) he’s right and the polling is rigged or at least flawed, (B) there are an awful lot of unregistered Republicans out there or (C) a lot of his supporters are voting in the online polls more than once.

Yesterday was the last day to register to vote in 12 states, but others allow registration right up to election day, so it’s still a little early to take the polls as gospel.

What about those polls?

Remember in 2012 the RCP average of polls said that Romney was only 0.7  points behind just a day before the election.  His supporters adamantly maintained that the margin of error would continue to swing his way.

It didn’t, and ultimately Obama won by 3.9 points.

However, at the 28-day point, which is where we are now, Romney was behind Obama by a mere half a point, not 6 points.

Given that the polls were off by that much in 2012, it’s not totally impossible that Trump could stage the comeback of the last fifty years. Remember Truman/Dewey?

Likely, no. Possible? This year, anything’s possible.

All the “good” polls haven’t been tallied since the debate, and there are still purportedly thousands of Clinton-related emails to be released by Wikileaks that bolster the impression that she is a serial liar. They also seem to prove that some of the press covering her have strayed a long, long way from journalistic ethics.

(To that latter point…you are never ever supposed to give the subject of your interview veto power over your article.  It is OK for them to correct an obvious inaccuracy in a direct quote, for instance a wrong date or a misspelled name, but that’s as far as it’s supposed to go.)

The impact of the newest emails is more significant than some commentators want to admit.

The proof of that is the Clinton campaign’s rush to condemn them as fabrications made up by the Russian government.

Remember the 2012 election “zinger” moment when President Obama, in response to Governor Romney’s assessment that Russia was a big danger, told Mitt Romney that the 1980s wanted their foreign policy back?

The Clinton campaign now seems quite happy to invoke the specter of the Russian bear as a campaign theme.

There may be more edited footage from the cutting room floor to be released from the NBC archives as well. If so, you can bet the Clintons will use it.

Unlike Mrs. Clinton, Mr. Trump didn’t deny that he said some things he’s not proud of now. It’s debatable as to whether further examples will retain their shock value at this point.

Oh yes. Speaking of debates, there is a third and final debate on tap. It should have great ratings.

His Republican detractors are having a field day with his reaction to losing the support of a couple of dozen GOP establishment stalwarts whose arms had to be twisted hard enough to cause a green stick fracture to get them to support him even for the briefest of moments.

Not that his supporters care…those are the people they want to get rid of, making their opinion worth something less than three day old catfish bait to the faithful.

What polling that has been released post-debate #2  shows Trump behind by 6 to 8 points, but also shows some 89% of Republicans voting or leaning toward voting for Trump.

Realistically, he needs closer to 99%, given that there are fewer Republicans than Democrats in the country.

He also needs a significant number of independent voters and a few more disaffected Democrats as well.

There is no caped crusader or winsome Disney™ character that’s going to swoop in and rescue Republicans. What you see is what you get…two flawed human beings.

One says she wants people to join her, and the other one says he wants to join the people.

One election observer summed that difference up in a very few words:

You have two candidates and two very different visions for America. Pick one.

Elections aren’t over until the last votes are counted, but if those extra 30 million invisible people are out there, this would be a good time for them to stand up.

From → op-ed

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