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He told us he would.

May 9, 2018

To no one’s surprise, President Trump pulled the U.S. out of the Iran deal, aka the JCPOA yesterday, with some conditions to minimize the immediate  impact of that decision on Europe and the international business community.

Of course the usual heads exploded, but we’ve been wiping their brains off our screens for 18 months now so that’s not even news.

One somewhat humorous side note is that it was reported that some people in the State Department were “thinking about” resigning because of that decision.

That’s a positive, not a negative.  If any of them were brave enough to say it out loud, hopefully Secretary of State Pompeo has already told HR it’s OK to have their checks ready this evening.

Seriously though, did anyone think that the French president’s charm offensive and continental kisses would change the President’s mind?

The most immediate effect here at home will probably be at the gas pump, with oil briefly topping $71 a barrel as of this writing, up just over $2 a barrel from yesterday. A secondary effect could be felt in the jobs market, as companies are prohibited from doing business with Iran.

The European and British signatories to the JCPOA  could have stood up for additional conditions, but apparently they were convinced that Iran would lob a few missiles at them, or perhaps they still don’t understand a man that makes a promise and then keeps it.

There is always the chance that the Iranian president Rouhani will take some sort of retaliatory action, maybe against Israel, since even Iran probably isn’t dumb enough to start a shooting war with the U.S. directly.

In a perfect world, Europe and Britain could still attempt to add some teeth to the Iran deal, like real inspections of every nuclear work site with no more than 24 hours notice.

That’s an adjustment the President has already said he favors. In fact they could have done that at any time since President Trump was elected, and then all the corporations, like Boeing, which stands to lose about $20 billion in airplane sales to Iran, wouldn’t find themselves slipping off the gravy train. Or, they could just join us in sanctions

It’s been hard to understand why countries who say they are our allies would have opposed adding some teeth to the agreement, unless, like so many others, their leaders were betting Trump wouldn’t do what he has said he would do ever since he came down that escalator in 2015.

Bad bet.

Whatever their reasons, it’s done now.

From → op-ed

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